Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: A High-Dimensional Econometric Assessment of Qatar’s Post-2022 Diversification Trajectory

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive econometric assessment of Qatar’s economic diversification trajectory following the 2022 FIFA World Cup, employing dynamic factor models and structural break analysis to evaluate sectoral transformation and resilience. Using quarterly data from 2017–2024, we test three formally derived hypotheses concerning structural breaks in economic composition, sectoral resilience to external shocks, and the effectiveness of diversification policies. Our findings reveal a statistically significant structural break in Q4 2022, with non-hydrocarbon sector growth accelerating while exhibiting lower volatility relative to hydrocarbon sectors, consistent with the hypothesis of a sustained legacy effect rather than a purely transitory construction boom. Tourism, financial services, and logistics demonstrate the strongest resilience to external shocks, while construction exhibits persistent fiscal-cycle vulnerability. The estimated diversification elasticity suggests moderate but incomplete progress toward reducing oil-revenue dependence. Policy simulations indicate that current trajectories may approach, yet require acceleration to comfortably achieve, Qatar National Vision 2030 targets. Findings contribute to the broader literature on mega-event legacies and structural transformation in resource-rich economies.