دور الابتكار في تعزيز التنويع الاقتصادي في الدول المصدِّرة للنفط في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: دراسة قياسية*
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منشور
مار 24, 2024
Copyright Information
هذا العمل مرخص بموجب Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
الملخص
أثبت تشجيع الابتكار والتطوُّر التكنولوجي أنّه خطوة كبيرة إلى الأمام في مساعي البلدان الرامية إلى تعزيز التنويع الاقتصادي، وعلى ضوء ذلك تُلقي ورقتنا البحثية هذه الضوء على دور الابتكار في تسريع التنويع الاقتصادي بـ(11) دولة مصدِّرة للنفط في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا ما بين 1996 و2019، وعلى مستوى التنويع الاقتصادي فيها؛ حال حصولها على نفس معدلات الابتكار في دول سبق وأن نجحت في تنويع قاعدة صادراتها، مثل كندا. تُظهر النتائج المستمدّة من استخدام طريقة العزوم المعمَّمة الديناميكية ذات الفروق، أنّ تعزيز الابتكار يمكن أن يعطي زخمًا قويًا للتنويع الاقتصادي في الدول المصدِّرة للنفط في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا. بشكل أكثر دقّة، ومن المرجح أن يرتفع مستوى التنويع الاقتصادي القائم على الابتكار بوتيرة أكبر في دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي مقارنة بنظرائها، وأنّ التنويع الاقتصادي في الدول المصدِّرة للنفط في المنطقة يتأثَّر إيجابيًا ومعنويًا بالحوكمة، والتنمية البشرية، والائتمان المقدّم للقطاع الخاص، والحرية الاقتصادية. كما أنّ عائدات النفط تحبط بشكل حقيقي الجهود التي تبذلها هذه البلدان في سبيل تنويع اقتصاداتها. وتؤكِّد النتائج فعالية التأثير المشترك للحوكمة والريع النفطي في تسريع عملية التنويع الاقتصادي في هذه البلدان، وأنّ التنويع الاقتصادي في الدول المصدِّرة للنفط في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا سيزيد بنسبة 1.77%؛ إذا تمكَّنت هذه الدول من اللحاق بركب معدلات الابتكار التي تتمتَّع بها كندا.
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الكلمات المفتاحية
التنويع الاقتصاديالابتكارريع النفطالدول المصدِّرة للنفط في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا
المراجع
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• Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-d
• Arezki, R., & Brückner, M. (2011). Oil rents, corruption, and state stability: Evidence from panel data regressions. European Economic Review, 55(7), 955-963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.03.004
• Barro, R. J. (2001). Human capital and growth. American Economic Review, 91(2), 12-17. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.12
• Beutel, J. (2021). Economic diversification and sustainable development of GCC countries. In G. Luciani & T. Moerenhout (Eds.). When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable? (pp. 99-151). Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-981-15-5728-6_6
• Bhattacharyya, S., & Hodler, R. (2014). Do natural resource revenues hinder financial development?: The role of political institutions. World Development, 57, 101–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.12.003
• Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00009-8
• Cieślik, A., & Parteka, A. (2021). Relative productivity, country size and export diversification. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57, 28–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.01.002
• Claessens, S. (2006). Access to financial services: A review of the issues and public policy objectives. The World Bank Research Observer, 21(2), 207–240. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/lkl004
• Dutta, S., Lanvin, B., & Wunsch-Vincent, S. (2020). The Global Innovation Index 2020: Who Will Finance Innovation?. Ithaca, Fontainebleau, and Geneva: Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_gii_2020.pdf
• Esanov, A. (2012). Economic diversification: Dynamics, determinants and policy implications. Revenue Watch Institute, 8, 1-26. https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/RWI_Economic_Diversification.pdf
• Hansen, B. E., & West, K. D. (2002). Generalized method of moments and macroeconomics. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(4), 460–469. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618603
• Hendrix, C. S. (2017). Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century. International Review of Applied Economics, 33(2), 188–208. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1389862
• Hvidt, M. (2021). Economic diversification and job creation in the Arab Gulf countries: Applying a value chain perspective. In G. Luciani & T. Moerenhout (Eds.). When Can Oil Economies Be Deemed Sustainable? (pp. 281-300). Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-981-15-5728-6_11
• International Energy Agency (IEA) (2018). Outlook for Producer Economies 2018: What Do Changing Energy Dynamics Mean For Major Oil and Gas Exporters?. Paris: International Energy Agency (IEA). https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5798254b-0e2c-4104-91c4-d420f105863b/WEO_2018_Special_Report_Outlook_for_Producer_Economies.pdf
• Joya, O. (2015). Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 35, 38–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2015.10.001
• Kim, M., D., & Ferrer Morera, G. (2017). Improving firms' innovation to foster productivity and diversification. World Bank Report No. ACS22413. World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28280
• Klinger, B., & Lederman, D. (2006). Innovation and export portfolios. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3983. World Bank, Washington, D.C. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8362
• Lamberg, J., A., Ojala, J., Peltoniemi, M., & Särkkä, T. (2012). The Evolution of Global Paper Industry 1800–2050: A Comparative Analysis. Springer, Dordrecht. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-007-5431-7
• Mazarei, A. (2019). Efforts of oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa to diversify away from oil have fallen short. Peterson Institute for International Economics Policy Brief No. PB 19-6. https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/pb19-6.pdf
• Namazi, M., & Mohammadi, E. (2018). Natural resource dependence and economic growth: A TOPSIS/DEA analysis of innovation efficiency. Resources Policy, 59, 544–552. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.09.015
• Osakwe, P. N., & Moussa, N. (2017). Innovation, diversification and inclusive development in Africa. UNCTAD Research Paper No.2. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ser-rp-2017d2_en.pdf
• Osakwe, P. N., Santos-Paulino, A. U., & Dogan, B. (2018). Trade dependence, liberalization, and exports diversification in developing countries. Journal of African Trade, 5(1-2), 19–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joat.2018.09.001
• Osakwe, P., N. (2016). Transformative regionalism, trade and the challenge of poverty reduction in Africa. In A. Gutowski, T. Knedlik, P. N. Osakwe, I. Ramdoo, & K. Wohlmuth (Eds.). Africa's Progress in Regional and Global Economic Integration: Towards Transformative Regional Integration (pp. 23–48). LIT VERLAG GmbH, Zurich. https://www.lit-verlag.de/isbn/978-3-643-90523-9
• Pomfret, R. (2013). The Economic Development of Canada. Routledge, Toronto. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315019550
• Pritchett, L., Sen, K., & Werker, E. (2017). Deals and Development: The Political Dynamics of Growth Episodes. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/deals and development 9780198801641?cc=dz&lang=en&#
• Sæther, B., Isaksen, A., & Karlsen, A. (2011). Innovation by co-evolution in natural resource industries: The Norwegian experience. Geoforum, 42(3), 373–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2011.01.008
• Schwab, K., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2017). The Global Competitiveness Report 2017–2018. World Economic Forum, Geneva. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/GCR2017 2018/05FullReport/TheGlobalCompetitivenessReport2017%E2%80%932018.pdf
• Stepanyan, V., Abajyan, G., Ndoye, A., & Alnasaa, M. (2019). Enhancing the role of SMEs in the Arab World—Some key considerations. Policy Papers, 19(040). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513522760.007
• Tsani, S. (2013). Natural resources, governance and institutional quality: The role of resource funds. Resources Policy, 38(2), 181–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.11.001
• World Bank (2019). Economic diversification for a sustainable and resilient GCC. Gulf Economic Update No. 5. World Bank, Washington, DC.. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/886531574883246643/pdf/Economic-Diversification-for-a-Sustainable-and-Resilient-GCC.pdf
• World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). (2021). Evaluation of the WIPO Division for Arab Countries. WIPO, Geneva. https://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/about wipo/en/oversight/iaod/evaluation/pdf/210611_division_for_arab_countries_evaluation_report_for_publishing.pdf
كيفية الاقتباس
معط الله س. (2024). دور الابتكار في تعزيز التنويع الاقتصادي في الدول المصدِّرة للنفط في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: دراسة قياسية*. الشبكة الأكاديمية للحوار التنموي, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.29117/andd.2022.013
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